Heating Up: Mine Fires Could Help Boost Steelmaking Coal Prices

Will metalurgical coal rebound? Plus, Anglo American steps in it with fertilizer writedown.

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Happy Thursday, Zingers! Today we look at the potential for steelmaking coal to rise in price, Anglo American’s fertilizer woes in the world and Freeport’s expansion of a copper mine in Chile.

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TOP STORY

Briefly: Steelmaking coal upply outages in Australia and the United States are providing underlying tightness that could cause prices to spike in the late summer and fall.

Context: Mine fires in Australia and West Virginia and a lock and dam closure in Alabama are causing tightness that won't become visible until India and China come back to the market.

What Now? Among the top concerns of the market right now is the outage at Anglo American's Grosvenor Mine, which supplies more than 1% of global seaborne steelmaking coal.

What Next: $300 steelmaking coal prices could be in play sometime in the fall, although the market won't get back to the highs from the previous year because of a weaker Chinese economy.

ZINGERS

McEwen Mining (NYSE:MUX) plans to mine copper at the Los Azules project near San Juan, Argentina, through a subsidiary, McEwen Copper.

Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) announced a $7.5 billion expansion of its El Abra copper mine in northern Chile.

Vale (NYSE:VALE) is set to open a new open-pit mine at the historic Stobie mine site in Sudbury, Ontario.

DIGGING IN

Briefly: Anglo American announced a $1.6 billion writedown on its Woodsmith fertilizer project in the U.K.

Why it Matters: This setback adds further complexity to CEO Duncan Wanblad‘s strategy of revitalizing Anglo after successfully defending it against a $49 billion takeover bid from BHP.  

What Now? In the wake of BHP's unsuccessful bid, management is navigating through divestment challenges — notably a major fire at the Grosvenor mine in Queensland, Australia.

What Next? Despite setbacks, Wanblad remains optimistic about Anglo American's core divisions, copper and iron ore.  

ANALYST RATINGS

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) - Date: 07/24/2024, Analyst Firm: Raymond James, Rating: Maintains Outperform, Target: Lowered to $53 from $54

Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) - Date: 07/23/2024, Analyst Firm: HSBC, Rating: Upgrades to Buy from Hold

INSIDER TRADES

Notable Purchases

Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM) - Purchase Date: 6/20/2024, Insider: John Stephen Morris Turner (director), Value: $16.15K, Delta Own: 4.73%

Dakota Gold (AMEX:DC) - Purchase Date: 6/20/2024, Insider: James McCoy Berry (vice president exploration), Value: $49.60K, Delta Own: 7.88%

Notable Sales

Dakota Gold (AMEX:DC) - Sell Dates: 07/10/2024, Insider: Patrick Shay Malone (SVP & CAO), Value: $66.15K, Delta Own: -10.55%

Metallus (NYSE:MTUS) - Sell Dates: 07/15/2024, Insider: Kristopher R. Westbrook (CFO), Value: $271.58K, Delta Own: -4.65%

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