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Slippery Slope
Why copper prices are slipping. Plus a look at Indonesia's nickel sector.
Happy Thursday, Zingers! It’s time to dust off your hard hats. Today we explore why copper prices are slipping, dig into what Indonesia’s electric vehicle ambitions mean for coal, Antofagasta’s water deal and more.
Also, you can find the latest in Benzinga’s mining coverage here.
TOP STORY
Briefly: Copper is facing a headwind as stockpiles in China, the world’s biggest consumer of the metal, are soaring at an unexpected time.
Why it Matters: This surge is raising concerns about weakening demand despite a recent price rally.
Fasten Your Seatbelts: The unusual rise in inventories coincides with a turbulent period for the Chinese economy, marked by mixed manufacturing data.
Meanwhile: Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is also showing signs of a slowdown, as evidenced by the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Room for Disagreement: ThisisMoney expects a price range of $7,000 to $7,500 per metric ton, lower than the consensus forecast of above $8,500. Goldman Sachs forecasts $12,000 by the year’s end.
ZINGERS
Antofagasta (OTC: ANFGF) signed a started $600 million deal to enhance water supply systems in northern Chile, a critical step to ramp up mining production in a water-scarce region.
Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) announced a $143 million (A$215 million) investment to establish a new research and development facility in Western Australia dedicated to low-emission steelmaking.
Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (Nasdaq:KALU) released its 2023 sustainability report, highlighting its commitment to sustainability and alignment with its corporate values.
Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC) has been named one of America’s Best Climate Leaders 2024 by USA TODAY and Statista Inc. CEO Peter Matt said the company was honored.
Gold Royalty (NYSEAmerican:GROY) updated its 2024 guidance following its acquisition of a copper stream from the Vares Silver Project in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
DIGGING IN
Briefly: Ostensibly climate-friendly ambitions come embedded with an inherent contradiction—the more batteries and EVs Indonesia produces the more climate-warming coal it burns.
The Data: The International Energy Agency expects surging demand for nickel and development of coal-fired power plants to boost Indonesia's coal consumption from 228 million tons in 2023 to 284 million tons in 2026.
Big Picture: Indonesia holds the world’s biggest nickel reserves and undercuts foreign competitors on price in part because of subsidized coal used to generate electricity for the nickel refining process.
What Now: Uncertainty surrounds how Indonesia’s president-elect will balance the nation's relationship with China with ambitions to attract Western investors in its EV supply chain.
What Next: If more Western companies force environmental reforms, Indonesian nickel products could get more expensive, allowing ex-China nickel miners with higher costs of production to be more competitive.
ANALYST RATINGS
US Goldmining (NASDAQ:USGO) - Date: 06/5/2024, Analyst Firm: HC Wainwright & Co., Rating: Maintains Buy, Target: Raises from $23 to $23.50
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) - Date: 06/6/2024, Analyst Firm: GLG Research, Rating: Downgrades from Buy to Sell, Target: $10.13
INSIDER TRADES
Notable Purchases
Ryerson Holding Corp. (NYSE:RYI) - Purchase Date: 5/29/2024, Insider: Marie Karen Leggio (Director), Value: $49.98K, Delta Own: No previous shares
Ramaco Resources (NASDAQ: METC) - Purchase Dates: 5/23-28/2024, Insider: Evan Jenkins (General Counsel), Value: $125K, Delta Own: 61.35%
Notable Sales
Reliance (NYSE:RS) - Sell (Options) Dates: 5/30/2024, Insider: Stephen Paul Koch (COO), Value: $6.3M, Delta Own: -70.23%
Hycroft Mining (Nasdaq:HYMC) - Sell Date: 06/1/2024, Insider: Diane Garrett (CEO), Value: $23.22K, Delta Own: -2.57%
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